February 27, 2026 

We are pleased to share Marsoft’s updated systems and Q1 2026 Dry Bulk Market Report, with additional sector reports following in the coming days. 

Shipping markets entered 2026 from a firmer base than a year ago, with geopolitics, fleet growth cycles, and shifting trade composition—not just headline volume growth—shaping utilization and asset values across segments. 

The tanker market was the clear standout performer in late 2025 and early 2026. Rates and values have surged—particularly for VLCCs—as US actions in Venezuela, potential actions in Iran, and a stronger sanctions enforcement posture and crackdown on the dark fleet have tightened available vessel supply. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Sinokor has led a wave of VLCC acquisitions aimed at market consolidation, boosting secondhand asset values and spooking charterers. VLCC spot rates surged well above $100,000/day to nearly $200,000/day by late February, with asset values rising 10–20% over the past two months.  

While near-term tanker earnings are exceptionally strong due to geopolitical turmoil, our Base Case scenario sees the conventional supply/demand fundamentals weakening modestly over the next two years. 

Dry bulk markets strengthened in 25Q4, led by Capesize outperformance as spot rates averaged nearly $29,000/day in the quarter (+18% Q-o-Q; +60% Y-o-Y). Tonne-mile demand rose well above volume growth, supported by Atlantic Basin iron ore and bauxite flows to Asia and resilient Chinese iron ore imports despite weaker steel output—what we describe in this quarter’s report as China’s iron ore “import intensity” puzzle. Strong late 2025 contracting lifted the orderbook and reinforced medium-term supply risk. 

Containerized trade growth once again exceeded expectations in 25Q4, expanding at a 5.2% year-on-year pace. While liner earnings moved lower during the seasonally weak quarter, charter rates and vessel prices remained at or edged higher than their September highs and entered 2026 on a strong note amidst sparse charter tonnage availability. Middle East tensions have delayed our assumed timeline for a full Red Sea reopening, thus tipping our outlook towards more balanced market conditions through 2026. However, record newbuilding activity points to significant overcapacity risks in 2028–29. 

In LNG, short-term rates briefly surged to $75,000/day in 25Q4 amid a spike in European imports and vessel repositioning to load US cargoes, but fundamentals remain weak and rates fell back below $20,000/day in January. Full-year 2025 trade volumes rose 4.1%, driven by US exports to Europe, but tonne-mile demand grew by less than 1% while fleet capacity expanded by more than 10% even after a pickup in scrapping, leaving a persistent fleet overhang. We expect stronger trade growth in 2026, but only modest rate improvement as the fleet imbalance will take time to absorb. 

The LPG market remains constructive entering 2026. VLGC rates averaged $53,000/day in 25Q4—about 40% above year-earlier levels—and have strengthened so far this year counter to typical seasonal patterns, supported by robust US exports and a favorable propane/naphtha spread. While fleet growth begins to accelerate this year, expanding US supply and a normalization of US-China propane trade should help absorb deliveries in 2026. However, a larger influx of vessels from 2027 onward introduces downside supply risk later in the decade. 

We invite you to review our reports for full sector detail and scenarios. Please reach out with any questions or to discuss how these developments may affect your portfolio or strategic planning.