August 26, 2026 

We are pleased to share Marsoft’s updated market data, reports, and forecasts for the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Containership, LNG, and LPG market segments.

Geopolitics continue to be at the forefront of shipping markets, with the conflict in the Middle East Gulf (MEG) remaining the dominant near-term variable for all segments of shipping. Despite continuing stalemate and volatility, our Base Case considers a Strait of Hormuz resolution in 26Q4, a result of mounting economic pressures for all sides.

Tankers | The tanker market boom showed no sign of slowing in 26Q2, with earnings holding at very strong levels and secondhand values at or approaching record highs. Fundamentals weakened, with trade demand taking a significant hit from the Strait of Hormuz restrictions, but disruptions and risk premiums more than offset this. In the near term, how the MEG conflict resolves is the key variable for tanker trade demand. Over the next 2-3 years, however, the market will have to absorb an onslaught of deliveries from the ordering boom seen over the past nine months. That will accelerate fleet growth across 2027-29 and likely bring about a period of much lower earnings and asset values.

Dry Bulk | Dry bulk’s strength this year has come from cargo growth and longer voyages rather than disruption premiums, with Atlantic Basin iron ore and bauxite displacing shorter-haul supplies and gas-to-coal switching—an indirect consequence of lost Qatari LNG—lifting steam coal trade. Earnings rose across every segment in 26Q2, with Capes averaging $36,300/day (+59% Q-o-Q), and the sub-Cape segments also advancing. A strong El Niño should add further to coal and grain tonne-miles into 27H1 through various channels that we view as net positive for fleet utilization. An escalating Black Sea maritime security environment is displacing Russian and Ukrainian grain onto longer-haul replacement supply, a further marginal support. But the supply picture has shifted, with the Capesize orderbook nearly doubling over the past twelve months, and our Base Case carries firm earnings into 2027 before a softening into an early-2029 trough due to fleet growth, followed by a nascent recovery in 2030.

Containership | Liner operators enjoyed a stellar 26Q2, with trade growth remaining exceptionally strong at 5.1% Y-o-Y and profits surging across the board. Charter rates and vessel prices are red-hot, second only to the post-pandemic highs of 2021-2022, as charter vessel availability remains historically tight; rates have averaged 9% higher and secondhand prices 5% above year-start levels. Continued healthy trade growth, moderate fleet expansion (at least through 2027), and likely El Niño-driven Panama Canal capacity constraints should keep fundamentals relatively balanced in the coming months. The market could see a dramatic unwinding should a widespread return to the Red Sea materialize in early 2027—Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA CGM are already testing the waters, reinstating select services via the Suez Canal in August.

LNG | LNG tanker earnings remained elevated relative to fundamentals in 26Q2 as ongoing MEG supply disruptions pushed gas prices higher in Europe and Asia. Spot rates for the 170k cbm DF/DE benchmark held near $70,000/day and one-year TC rates rose from $50,000 to $70,000/day, despite a 13.8% contraction in LNG trade volumes and a 3.5% increase in fleet capacity. European imports slowed on higher prices despite near-record low natural gas storage levels, while Asia's share of imports rose and the resulting increase in average haul distance held the tonne-mile decline from 26Q1 to just 6%. Newbuilding and secondhand values were little changed. We expect rates to fall in 26H2 as the conflict premium fades and fleet growth continues to outpace trade volumes.

LPG | The LPG market remains strong entering the back half of 2026. VLGC rates averaged a record high $133,000/day in 26Q2 while secondhand values rose by an average $3 million Q-o-Q. Rates have risen further to $143,000/day on the US–Japan route in late August, as Asian importers turn to US supply in the wake of lost MEG volumes amid Panama Canal delays. We expect rates to remain strong by historical standards through year-end, with Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and a strong El Niño likely to prolong the reshuffling of trade. Expanding US supply and rising US–Asia propane trade should absorb this year's deliveries, but a larger influx of vessels from 2027 introduces downside supply risk later in the decade.

We invite you to review our reports for full sector details on current market developments and our Base, High, and Low Case scenarios. Please reach out to us at support@marsoft.com with any questions or to discuss how these developments may affect your portfolio, investments, chartering strategy, or strategic planning.