May 28, 2026

We are pleased to share Marsoft’s updated market data and forecasts for the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Containership, LNG, and LPG segments. We have also published the 2026 Q2 Dry Bulk Market Report and LNG Market Report, with additional sector reports to follow in the coming days.

Geopolitics continue to dominate shipping markets through the first five months of 2026, with the late-February strikes on Iran and ensuing closure of the Strait of Hormuz reshuffling trade flows and rates across nearly every shipping segment. The timing of the reopening of the Strait to regular vessel traffic remains a key variable shaping the outlook for the global economy and shipping markets in the second half of 2026 and possibly into 2027. Our 26Q2 Base Case across segments assumes the conflict in the Middle East Gulf reaches a resolution by the end of June, with Strait of Hormuz trade flows gradually ramping up through the third quarter and returning to pre-conflict levels by year-end.

Tankers | The end-February strikes on Iran and ensuing Strait closure sent crude rates soaring above $200,000/day in March despite a steep drop in global oil trade volumes, with MR product tanker spot earnings also doubling from $30,000/day to $60,000/day. Rates remained extremely high in April before modestly leveling off in May. Tanker secondhand values rose sharply through 26Q1, lifting Aframax and product tanker prices to two-year highs and VLCCs and Suezmaxes to levels not seen since 2008. We expect oil trade flows to recover in the second half of 2026—with inventories requiring replenishment—allowing tanker rates to hold at relatively high levels through year-end. From 2027 through 2029, however, we expect rates and prices to fall back significantly as accelerating fleet deliveries weigh on the market, with the tanker orderbook-to-fleet ratio having climbed to its highest level since 2011.

Dry Bulk | Dry bulk markets entered 2026 from a firm base and have accelerated meaningfully into 26Q2. Capesize spot rates are averaging $35,700/day quarter-to-date—well above year-ago levels—with sub-Cape segments firming 15–30% versus 26Q1. Atlantic Basin bauxite, iron ore, and grain flows into Asia continue to stretch average haul lengths and support tonne-mile demand. The MEG conflict has now added second-order tailwinds, most consequentially gas-to-coal substitution amid disrupted Qatari LNG exports, alongside tighter tonnage availability and operational inefficiencies. Our Base Case carries firm earnings through 2026 on roughly +30 mt of incremental seaborne steam coal trade in 2026 (and +37 mt in 2027). Earnings then soften through late 2027 and into 2028 as the orderbook bulge delivers, before firming again in 2029–30 as fleet growth moderates and Guinea's Simandou iron ore megaproject ramps up.

Containership | Containership charter rates and vessel prices are red-hot this year, second only to the post-pandemic highs of 2021-2022, and edged higher in April and May as feederships capitalized on mainline service disruptions in the Middle East and charter vessel availability remained at historically low levels. Containerized trade growth gained new momentum in 26Q2, as shippers forwarded cargo in anticipation of fuel-related spikes in contract rates on July 1. Charter rates should remain elevated through 2026, but a likely reopening of the Red Sea should lead to a correction in 2027. The longer the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, the worse the impact on the global economy and on containerized demand—but the elephant in the room remains an ever-ballooning containership orderbook, which now includes a fast-rising feedership backlog.

LNG | Charter rates briefly surged to six figures in March as buyers scrambled for tonnage and spot cargoes to replace lost Middle East output. Spot rates settled back in early 26Q2 to around $70,000/day and we expect them to slide further in the second half of the year as trade flows normalize. 2026 will see a contraction in LNG trade volume, and 2027 is likely to feature weak rates as spare Qatari shipping capacity returns to the relet market. Rates should then strengthen in 2028–29 on rising US exports to Asian markets, although ~13 million tonnes of Qatari output will likely remain off the market through 2028 while Ras Laffan Trains 4 and 6 are repaired.

LPG | The VLGC market surged in late May to new record highs of $175,000/day on the US-Japan route, surpassing the previous 2023 H2 peak by $25,000/day. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed importers towards US supply, and, in an echo of 2023, ensuing delays at the Panama Canal have exacerbated the rate spike. We now expect 2026 spot rates to average $72,000/day, some $10,000/day above our prior Base Case, driven by 4% tonne-mile growth. With Middle East supply accounting for roughly 30% of global LPG trade (pre-conflict) and the US already exporting close to capacity, the 7–10 million tonnes of expected US capacity expansions coming online this year fall well short of replacing lost Middle East volumes, leaving Asian importers to compete harder for limited cargoes. 

We invite you to review our reports for full sector details on current market developments and our base case, high case, and low case scenarios. Please reach out to us at info@marsoft.com with any questions or to discuss how these developments may affect your portfolio, investments, chartering strategy or strategic planning.