Marsoft Q425 Market Reports and Systems

Shipping markets entered Q4 with broad-based momentum. The standout development has been the extraordinary surge in VLCC earnings, with spot rates above $120,000/day—supported by rising OPEC supply, sanctions enforcement, increased long-haul crude flows, and modest fleet growth. While near-term fundamentals remain firm, our Base Case outlook is more tempered as new capacity arrives in 2026–27.

Dry Bulk markets strengthened on record long-haul iron ore and bauxite shipments into China and an improving 2025/26 grain trade outlook. Forecast revisions this quarter reflect a moderately stronger near-term outlook, with Capes expected to continue outperforming smaller segments.

In the containership sector, trade growth outperformed expectations in Q3, as global Chinese exports gained momentum despite sharply lower shipments to the US. Charter market rates and prices edged higher amidst persisting scarcity of charter tonnage. In the liner sector, Q3 earnings averaged above Q2 levels, but leading carriers warn of likely losses over the next two quarters.

In the gas markets, LNG import volumes diverged across regions—with Europe rising year-on-year, Asia softer, and China down 18% YTD—and spot rates have begun to firm as we enter the winter season. We remain cautious on a potential LNG supply glut by 2027/28. In LPG, VLGC rates reached 2025 highs in Q3 amid shifting US and Middle Eastern export patterns, with slow fleet growth supporting utilization.

A key cross-sector theme is our maintained thesis that Red Sea traffic normalizes to pre-Houthi levels by the second half of 2026. Unwinding diversions carry negative tonne-mile implications that vary by sector, while the possibility of prolonged diversions remain a feature of our High Case. We also note the failure of the IMO’s Net Zero Framework negotiations, which heightens longer-term uncertainty around emissions pricing, compliance timelines, and the policy environment for future newbuild investments.

We invite you to review our reports for full sector detail and scenarios. Please reach out with any questions or to discuss how these developments may affect your portfolio or strategic planning.

**Marsoft’s Q4-2025 NAVIGATOR system upgrades, the Q4 ’25 Tanker Market Report, and the FLAGSHIP Q4 '25 updates issued on Nov. 20, 2025; the Dry Bulk and VLGC-LPG Reports on Nov. 24/Dec 2; the LNG Market Report on Dec 2; and the Containership Market Report on December 10. Subscribers are alerted via email as Reports and Systems are released.